A lot has happened since my last Bottom Line. First we have moved our McKinney address to:
7209 Millard Pond Drive
McKinney TX 75071
206 South Kentucky Street
McKinney TX 75069
We still have our Dallas office at:
16660 North Dallas Parkway
Dallas TX 75248
You can mail to either address.
What else is happening?
Here we are at the heart of earning season. In the next three weeks we will see just how well companies have performed the first half of this year. Expectations are high from the majority of analyst. Today the markets ended flat with the S&P 500 squeaking out a 0.18% gain.
However, there were more stocks up than down. This is important because the overall up or down of the market is much harder to determine today because of the weighting of stocks in varying indices. For example the NASDAQ can show a day that is up 0.28% but actually there were many more NASDAQ socks down than up. This is because Apple, Google, Amazon, Netflix, all went up and this carried the index. This will change in coming weeks as earning reports start to flow in. 1,245 companies report their profits or losses this week alone.
The economy is as strong as it has been in 10 years. Just about every economic report is better than the previous report. We will get 2Q GDP report this Friday. Estimates are mind blowing. The latest estimate is a GDP growth of 4.2%. also we are expecting to see a huge jump in consumer spending of 2.9%. When people have jobs and are confident in keeping those jobs they spend money. Its really that easy.
The Bottom Line is this. The economy is firing on all cylinders, interests rates are still t historic low levels and unemployment is at a 10 year low as well. With a strong GDP report combined with great corporate earnings I am expecting the market to rally strongly through year end. No recession this year.
My concern is still an over aggressive FED raising rates too much too fast and a yield curve that goes inverted. Only time will tell and we are still closely watching.
Your Boring Money Manager,
Mowery Capital Management
We manage risks first
Then we buy quality
And only then do we seek to provide a reasonable return
At the time of this writing:
Dow Jones 25,044.29
S&P 500 2,806.98
Two Year Treasury Yield 2.64%
Ten Year Treasury Yield 2.96%
Thirty Year Treasury Yield 3.10%
Oil $67.72 bbl
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Disclosures and Notices
Sources: The Capital Group. Zacks, Seeking Alpha, CNBC, CNBC guest and contributors, Jim Cramer, Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, and Financial Times. Special thanks to Wikipedia and MarketWatch for historical facts. If I have inadvertently missed any other sources please accept my apologies. No assurance can be made that profits will be achieved or that substantial losses will not be incurred in connection with any investment. All investments involve varying degrees of risk including loss of capital. This information should not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation of any individual investment or strategy. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARR ANTEE OR INDICATION OF FUTURE RESULTS
This report, is furnished on a confidential basis to the recipient, does not constitute an offer of any securities or investment advisory services. This presentation is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by Mowery Capital Management, LLC, and it is not to be reproduced or redistributed to any other person without the prior consent of Mowery Capital Management, LLC. Past performance of any investments described herein is for illustrative purposes only and is not necessarily indicative of future results. Opinions and estimates offered herein are subject to change as are statements about market trends.
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